Target Markets.

[Mountain]

It is very easy to criticize the past without realizing the reason why models were made as they were. Technology existed to make excellent models in the past, but the retail costs of doing so would mean they would have isolated their customers, as in the past there were far more customers buying of the younger generation and older retired customers were only a small segment of the market for their models.
Back then, if one wanted a finescale model, one would rarely be interested in 00, but rather one would be converting them to EM, be either taking RTR and buying or making detailing kits from small backyard businesses, or be building kits and doing the same. The RTR market was largely aimed at the younger generations. The finescale market was much smaller and dominated by middle age men along with enthusiastic retirees who were the few who still had the patience and ability left to make and adapt models.. To the younger generations which was the bulk of the model railway customer sector, the models robustness and ability to repair and buy readily available spares (As parents who had been into the hobby themselves when younger simply would not spend out and buy these rather expensive toys of their day if spares were not readily available as they jolly well knew there would come a time when spares were needed.

So what changed?
Two things. The target market shifted as highly expensive (In their day) computers and computerized game consoles arrived on the scene and also there became a large growing amount of retirees entering the potential market with very well blessed pension pots so had money to spend and time to spare. This new target market was different and needed a different approach. A number no longer had the dexterity to adapt and make things themselves so big surveys were sent to customers around the early 00's and they came back showing the age groups buying, how much they spend etc, and it was after this survey that the aim to market to the younger generations changed and instead targeted the older generations, and a few things were noted. Prices went up again and again and models became more and more detailed with smoother running mechanisms. Spares availability was almost forgotten about as production shifted away from Europe and towards China. To be fair, China did used to provide exceptionally well detailed models into the UK via the Mainline (Palitoy) and Airfix (GMR) ranges, though these were aimed towards the then smaller segment of market which were the adults of their day. Hornby aimed towards the younger generations back then whose fathers would be supervising, and Lima came in aiming more towards an ever so slightly older target but retaining competition aimed at Hornby's segment of customers and again, provided plenty of spares though no one in those days could match Hornby! Many customers where duplicated models gave them a choice, would buy Hornby even if the competition offered a nicer looking model just so that they had the reassurance they could get spares and I am not kidding as I found myself making the same decision if both models were in the same retail price bracket. Lima retaliated here where some of their dealers were offering price reductions to undercut Hornby... It all sorted itself out back then and we all enjoyed the hobby, bought what attracted us, let those who wanted more detail detail their locos and good they were too! and all did out thing and ran our trains!

Now when the market started changing Bachmann entered the UK market which offered amazing new models like their class 46 and their Warship at prices one just could not resist, along with a re-introduction of retool Mainline models and SPARE CHASSIS for those who had a worn out Mainline loco so they could get their lovely locos back on the rails! These may also have been split framed chassis, but had larger more decently sized motors, so these replacement chassis flew off the shelves until for some reason the availability dried up and they were never seen in the shops again! Later Bachmann moved away from the split chassis idea towards more reliable chassis for their steam locos and smaller diesels such as the class 03 and 04 (Larger diesels never had a split chassis design and were of the newer excellent central moored types), and now newer chassis had to be again retool to make room for DCC sockets when DCC became more popular, and the rest is modelling history!

But let's look at the targeted market. This had shifted right away from the younger market and towards retirees. So what went wrong? Why did production runs get less and less as time went on? Why is this a rapidly shrinking market leaving the new targeted aims difficult to predict for the future?

[centenary]

Not sure the market has shifted to retirees, Id say more towards the very late 40s and, 50+ who have increasing disposable income after children have flown the nest \ mortgages paid off etc.

There's been a marked increase amongst the demographic to engage in hobbies and pastimes they had during their childhood. Even the numbers riding on heritage locos has exploded. Collectables in the form of diecast cars, buses and lorries, new and better aircraft construction kits from Airfix and Tamiya etc, has really increased over the last 10+ years.

Not only have manufacturing techniques improved, the higher end product price has also contributed to that improvement as manufacturers can fund the latest machinery rather than use worn out moulds.

There will always be those who want finer scale and thus build their own. The downside there is not just the time to construct but also the necessary skill and eyesight to complete the task to a better than RTR standard. While skillset can be built upon with experience, eyesight tends to drop off as we age, even if using eye aids!

There's obviously going to be some trickle down as the people buying these more expensive items either encourage grandchildren to join in the build process with lesser detailed items or play with grandad's trains or scalextric.

I can see why manufacturers limit production runs, limited supply tends to keep prices firm. At the same time, it also results in a degree of profiteering by speculators who sell via fleabay. It's the lead times that hacks me off (as you can probably guess!).

Thake Accurascale, the class 50 was very recently brought to market but while announcing a 2nd run to 'satisfy' demand, you'll have to wait the best part of a year to get your hands on one. It's not like they have to produce new development from scratch and new moulds. Same with their now announced Mark 2 carriages. Things like these should be available to produce within a few months not over a year (imho!).

Yes, factory time may need to be scheduled but Im a little sceptical that takes over a year as well.

[Mountain]

I actually agree in some points you make. There was a time when no pre-orders were needed and manufacturers didn't announce new models until production had begun. This meant that there were never any disappointed customers, and the only real disappointments were the few problematic models which should have spent far more time in testing their designs before they came out.
Though I always said with experience in the bicycle trade, that no matter how much testing goes in, it is not until the new product hits the market and customers buy that the real testing begins! As testers kinda automatically ride in ways that protect their bikes and components without thinking. General public does not always do that, so that is where one really gets to sort the wood from the trees!

[aleopardstail]

I suspect its a lot like the table top gaming market has moved to be aimed at those who were kids in the 80's, 90's and earlier 00's

they are now selling products people wanted bought couldn't afford when younger to a demographic aiming to recreate childhood dreams now they have the income to do it - coupled with that market not really wanting "robust but toylike"

I still think there is a market for "robust and toylike" at lower price points, the "trainset" needs to be within "birthday present" or "Christmas present" cost ranges, with expanding it as pocket money prices

and that stuff can be more basic in manufacture and decoration

[Bigmet]

The market has very definitely shifted from youth to later age, i.e. adults: that's from the olde worlde of the 1960s, to the present.
Olde worlde production volumes when there were typically only two competing OO brands are never coming back: there are a dozen significant brands (and up) in RTR OO able to deliver product of the expected standard for adults, and they will only produce in volume they are confident will sell; in a market where there are a zillion other activities being dangled to entice the adult leisure spend.

I still laugh at recollection of the prognosticators of doom and gloom at the time that Kader/Bachmann UK 'went for it' and rolled out the Blue Riband range in the late 1990s, utilising the proven technique established in China, initially for the very demanding North American RTR HO market. You only had to buy one and try it out on a decent OO layout; and then consider that the asking price for these RTR OO models made to the standard aimed at by proficient DIY modellers; it was under half that of the kits, running gear and mechanism parts, and the materials required to finish them, purchased by the DIY enthusiast.

It was a no-brainer for this model railway enthusiast to fill his boots with the frankly astounding and well thought out range of essential commonplace subjects, that Bachmann introduced at speed into the UK market, which development saw the subsequent move of Hornby into competing adult model quality production, followed by new entry competition :Heljan, ViTrains, Dapol, DJM, Hattons, RoS, OUTCAA.

Where we go from here I cannot begin to guess.

[Mountain]

It is odd situation the hobby is in now because there has never been so much interest, but the interest is far wider spread than it has been before, which is why it is harder to predict where things will end up.
Add to this are people's financial circumstances and their future financial circumstances, and also the types and kinds of different people who are interested and what they like. This hobby of ours never ceases to amaze and surprize!

[ChrisGreaves]

It is very easy to criticize the past without realizing the reason why models were made as they were....

Then there's:-
‘Model trains are my meditation'
"Model railways offer a ticket to a safe world – no wonder it's good for hobbyists' mental health"
Cheers, Chris

[Mountain]

That is a good senario of why we love our trains. We just like to run them. To watch them go and to couple up a train behind the loco to see how much it can pull...

Since I have matured in the hobby certain things changed, but the concept that I am now making them myself in order to eventually run them and play with them... Make them climb up a hill...

Also, our hobby means different things to different people. I know a lady in America who has seen my narrow gauge trains and she loves them! A few years ago I bought five little Gnomy pick-up style small lorries a bit like a Model T type thing. They were more toys but a similar scale to my narrow gauge trains, so when I saw a few for sale I bought five.
She saw a picture of them I had put up and she fell in love with them, so I sent her one!
Now several years passed and she loves my narrow gauge, so eventually after having also bought many more from a gentleman who was changing scale so offering me his collection bit by bit at prices I could afford... And his creations are of a similar style to mine with the exception that he liked to make them look well worn, while I like them to look nice and shiny! So I offered her a spare loco and a brake van and found a little 7mm scale man and have sent them to her as she and her husband have been through a bit so it will cheer them up! And she LOVES IT!
She does not have track yet or a controller... But anyway... She likes it!
Now to her, "Small and cute" is what she loves.
Another lady I know I got into trains. She likes 00. I gradually sent her a few things. None of her trains have any particular livery but are all "Small and cute" which is what she LOVES!
Again, wat one person loves can be different from the next.

The issue with predicting markets is that the mainstream manufacturers went off onto a magazine review pleasing spiral which is a slowly depleting one at that. The magazine reviews praised up more and more detailed models, and the manufacturers kept coming up with more to please them!
BUT I and others very much noticed that the magazine reviewers tended to have almost unlimited budgets, and so tended to mot realize that they were becoming out of reach to many of their potential buyers, but as the link between the modelling magazine press and the manufacturers was seen as essential by the manufacturers, as they believed they need to satisfy them instead of the modellers they had left behind, the production runs became more and more limited while the prices rose.
Now also in the last decade or so, a new breed of customer arrived to buy these models. The collectors who have a joy in collecting, and the small time investors who are the ones who want the prices to go high, and remain high,mas in these desparate times, more and more people with wealth are looking for ways to protect their money incase of financial collapse, and gold is risky because during a collapse it can be confiscated. Gold is also tracked. Our hobby and others is one that is considered by the small time investor now that the nose on property is being regulated to prevent investors retaining their wealth.

[aleopardstail]

on detail stuff, yes its lovely up close, I mean the G5 I have is amazing, the A2 is lovely, ditto the Q6 and K3.

however when trundling round the other side of the layout the "Railroad" A1 and the "Railways" A2 look remarkably similar except the colour shade difference. ditto the old Mainline N2 which at that sort of distance looks fine, especially when moving

not everything will always be under the microscope.

some stuff is good, interior lighting, head & tail lights, firebox lights etc, sound is a gimmick but a nice to have one (though firmly one you should be able to buy without)

sprung buffers? whatever
etched nameplates? again whatever, nice to have but to be honest something I can live without

thing is though a lot of these details are not significantly adding to the manufacturing costs, there is now a "going rate" and they design to that

[Bigmet]

...on detail stuff, yes its lovely up close, ... the old Mainline N2 which at that sort of distance looks fine, especially when moving...

And as I remember them, looking well used at the end of their service life: whoever did that tooling so well captured the character, and they were very plain in appearance and thus easy to detail. Then there's the unclip the cab option, for the summertime cabriolet on the run into the country on the Luton and Dunstable...

[Phred]

ChrisGreaves wrote:
Then there's:-
‘Model trains are my meditation'

That's a very insightful article. Pretty much describes why most of us are in the hobby.

[aleopardstail]

...on detail stuff, yes its lovely up close, ... the old Mainline N2 which at that sort of distance looks fine, especially when moving...

And as I remember them, looking well used at the end of their service life: whoever did that tooling so well captured the character, and they were very plain in appearance and thus easy to detail. Then there's the unclip the cab option, for the summertime cabriolet on the run into the country on the Luton and Dunstable...

they are quite nice, the same applies to other older models I have, the B12 that needs chipping is a crude model by modern standards, but its perfect as a "background train", even in photographs etc where it is iffy when in focus, the one behind the "star train" is a role its well suited to

I also need to get the other N2 chipped so "old noisy" has a friend.. as well as actually experimenting with sound deadening

[Bigmet]

... as well as actually experimenting with sound deadening...

The only way with the open frame motor of the Mainline and Dapol productions is to have the armature out and balanced, and fit replacement shaft bearings. It's fundamentally a good motor, appearing to be based on the old MW005 design, but was made to a low standard of precision. After first release of the Mainline originals I used my employer's prototyping shop to make the improvements required and it was transformative. (The magnet is a champion too, never seen any loss of field.)

[aleopardstail]

... as well as actually experimenting with sound deadening...

The only way with the open frame motor of the Mainline and Dapol productions is to have the armature out and balanced, and fit replacement shaft bearings. It's fundamentally a good motor, appearing to be based on the old MW005 design, but was made to a low standard of precision. After first release of the Mainline originals I used my employer's prototyping shop to make the improvements required and it was transformative. (The magnet is a champion too, never seen any loss of field.)

yes without a doubt thats the only way to deal with it, deal with the source. however shes a fair bit quieter without the body on, so some damping to stop the body vibration Ithink will improve things. if she can run slow without needing ear defenders I'm happy