(Will it be a) Happy New Year?

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RailwayRobbo
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(Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby RailwayRobbo » Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:59 pm

Well with 2020 confined to the history books I'd like to wish all NRM members a Happy New Year.
I was also wondering if anyone's got any thoughts how 2021 will shape up in particular the return of exhibitions?
I guess a lot depends on how fast we get our vaccine jabs.
The very nature of any exhibition with it's close proximity (and movement) of people visiting and exhibitors will make it one of the last indoor activities to be restarted in any form close to what they were pre pandemic.
The new Great Electric Train MRE at Manchester is scheduled for 13/14 March so I'm thinking that's definitely not going to happen.

RailwayRobbo Pete.

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6C
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby 6C » Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:09 pm

Guess a lot will depend on vaccination proofs as well.
No entry without it....

I wish every member the best...

Follow the rules folks - as plenty aren't...
Pete

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Bigmet
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Bigmet » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:15 pm

If the vaccination programmes are as effective as hoped, then provided we get a warm spring, end of May is a realistic guess at when the data will show that the risk is low enough for 'normal life' to resume.

6C wrote:Guess a lot will depend on vaccination proofs as well. No entry without it...

Impossible to police, unless the government quickly enacts into law that you get the 'proof' stamped in your passport. That would keep 20% of the UK population out: I'm prepared to bet that would prevent most of the soap dodgers from attending, so it might be a good plan...

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Peterm
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Peterm » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:56 pm

6C wrote:Guess a lot will depend on vaccination proofs as well. No entry without it...

Impossible to police, unless the government quickly enacts into law that you get the 'proof' stamped in your passport. That would keep 20% of the UK population out: I'm prepared to bet that would prevent most of the soap dodgers from attending, so it might be a good plan...[/quote]

That 20% wouldn't have any interest in modelling of any kind unless it was young girls and as for soap dodgers, they won't be missed along with their back packs swinging around.
Pete.

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flying scotsman123
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby flying scotsman123 » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:00 pm

I'm a little more pessimistic than that, at least partly because of lead times for organising stuff. I think it likely that it would be safe to have the normal autumn exhibition season, but will the bigger ones like Warley want to risk it having to predict so far in advance? My feeling is that by Easter we'll have returned to the best state that we were in over the summer, i.e. most things re-opened, but only with a lot of precautions, and things will gradually get better from thereon. The next month or so is going to be pretty grim though, remember the statistics we're seeing we haven't yet seen the effect of the Christmas relaxations, both the lawful and unlawful gatherings that took place throughout the holiday period.
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George Stein
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby George Stein » Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:01 am

On the other hand, it appears that "indoors" has been an impetus for the hobby. Hornby sales up; 3-d OO printing growing; Hornby maintaining the kit-based "build-a-wagon" part of their line; etc. Sitting and playing with one's I-phone ultimately gets boring. So just maybe...the hobby will prosper.

I'm curious whether the Brexit regs will affect Bachmann & Hornby sales in the EU as they are made in China, not sufficient UK "content" to escape new tariff??

And a downer for me as a Yank is the inexplicable rise of Sterling making imports more expensive. Hopefully Covid will abate and Hattons, et al. will be able to mail to the USA again.

Prosperous New Year to the Forum.
George
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Bigmet
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Bigmet » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:15 am

flying scotsman123 wrote:I'm a little more pessimistic than that, at least partly because of lead times for organising stuff. I think it likely that it would be safe to have the normal autumn exhibition season, but will the bigger ones like Warley want to risk it having to predict so far in advance? ...

May be a moot point, by Easter there will be a year and more worth of 'everybody's' trade shows and hobby exhibitions that haven't happened; and an almighty rush for exhibition space when this activity is once more possible, because there will be a lot of pent up commercial and public demand. Money will talk, and especially so at the big venues such as the NEC. I can see the advertising already: We all missed out on last year's Ideal Campervan Fair: so it's a double size event for 2021...

George Stein wrote:I'm curious whether the Brexit regs will affect Bachmann & Hornby sales in the EU as they are made in China, not sufficient UK "content" to escape new tariff ...

No change, unless there is something cunningly buried in the 'small print'. Don't forget the EU is currently 'making nice' to China since your outgoing Pres. has opened the door wide by offending them pretty thoroughly, so unlikely to be much hindrance to Chinese imports.

George Stein wrote:... the inexplicable rise of Sterling ...

Ah well, this is a nation of shopkeepers. (As diagnosed by that specialist in post-Romanitas stable centralised government control economy v5, N Bonaparte. He was correct, but it didn't do him any good, any more than it had or will all other such efforts, present attempt included.)

Currency movements work so well for the 'buy cheap, sell dear, never mind the quality feel the width' mentality of the Yahoos living on this little island.

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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Byegad » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:29 am

flying scotsman123 wrote:I'm a little more pessimistic than that, at least partly because of lead times for organising stuff. I think it likely that it would be safe to have the normal autumn exhibition season, but will the bigger ones like Warley want to risk it having to predict so far in advance? My feeling is that by Easter we'll have returned to the best state that we were in over the summer, i.e. most things re-opened, but only with a lot of precautions, and things will gradually get better from thereon. The next month or so is going to be pretty grim though, remember the statistics we're seeing we haven't yet seen the effect of the Christmas relaxations, both the lawful and unlawful gatherings that took place throughout the holiday period.


I think you've got it about right here. There's bad times coming in the next couple of months, but then as the vaccine gets down to the 65-70 group and then 60-60 and 55-60 year olds, things will be able to re-open, with precautions. However, by the Autumn, with second jabs for most, an almost normal life will return. Given the large number of anti-vaxers and disbelievers in Covid I very much doubt normality, as in 2019 and before, will be reached, unless events and all venues start to ask for concrete proof of vaccination, but I very much doubt that will ever happen in my lifetime, I'm 69.

Ex-Pat
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Ex-Pat » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:18 am

Bigmet wrote:Currency movements work so well for the 'buy cheap, sell dear, never mind the quality feel the width' mentality of the Yahoos living on this little island.


They (Sterling upward of course) also work well for British Pensioners living in the EU!
Byegad wrote:[

Given the large number of anti-vaxers and disbelievers in Covid


Add to that the greedy ones - the first vaccination in Ireland was only given last week (EU bureaucracy dragging its feet in sanctioning the vaccine).

TV coverage of the elderly lady receiving the first jab asked how she was, and she said she fancied a pint. Why couldn't she make do with the normal dose?

Bigmet
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Bigmet » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:25 am

Byegad wrote:...Given the large number of anti-vaxers and disbelievers in Covid I very much doubt normality, as in 2019 and before, will be reached, unless events and all venues start to ask for concrete proof of vaccination, but I very much doubt that will ever happen in my lifetime, I'm 69.


Alternatively, consider this. Influenza is a significantly more dangerous virus than Covid. We 'lived normally' with Influenza, and once Covid vax is generally in place, it becomes 'just another virus' in the cocktail we all live with, competing to kill off the vulnerable.

Now, here's the more important thing. Sooner or later a mutant Influenza for which we have little to no immunity will arise in the pig-duck-human virus breeder of the far East. IF (you notice it is a big if) our blessed government take on board the lessons learned from this current viral irruption, and plan for this contingency, there's a chance that the mortality from that might be effectively restricted. (I had full-on Influenza in my late twenties, following a business trip 'out East', and was I ever unwell, and it took months to reach full recovery afterwards. My GP at the time told me firstly that this was serious and might kill me, and secondly that 'one day' there would be a repeat of Influenza with the same effect as the 'Spanish Flu' event post WWI: with mortalities globally in the 'percent' range. Compare to Covid which has only killed 0.1% in the UK. Spanish Flu killed about 0.6% in the UK, and mostly young adults, not the elderly...)

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stuartp
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby stuartp » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:17 pm

A lot of 2021 shows are cancelled already, either because their venues are not available (SECC will still be a Nightingale Hospital so no AMRSS Glasgow show in Feb) or because their organisers aren't prepared to take the financial risk (York, others). It will be 2022 before shows get back to anything like normal, if they get there at all.

RailexNE for example will not be coming back on its former scale in the forseeable future, the club has cancelled 2021's and is concentrating on rebuilding its membership before deciding on whether to continue with a show which was at best only marginally profitable. With 50%+ membership drop over lockdown they can't risk it being loss making. Other clubs will no doubt be in a similar position - hobbies may have boomed over the summer but if people have got used to working alone and managing without the club night craic they might not see renewing their subscriptions as a priority.

The majority of the working age population (under 50, no underlying health conditions) aren't even on the vaccination radar yet.
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Bufferstop » Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:34 pm

I don't know which NEC hall is being used as a Nightingale, but I can see that the Warley event may not take place this year either, no one is going to want to commit to it until the situation is more stable. Many clubs have still not been able to meet since the start of the first lockdown and they for one will want some time to evaluate their position before committing to major shows.
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glencairn
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby glencairn » Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:01 pm

Possibly a year for two maybe three 'Virtual Model Railway Shows'. A way for shops and manufacturers to promote/sell their goods.

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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Dad-1 » Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:05 pm

2021 WILL be better ........I hope.
As a club chairman I am looking at 2021 as being our first year without our larger exhibitions.
Obviously the January one is impossible, and July on School premises ? No way will that happen.
However we do have a small hall that costs us under £100 for the full day (Even get the keys the day before)
My plan is that we run that small exhibition using club member layouts only. We have enough and ran a club
open day there a couple of times and charging just £1 entry covered all costs with a small excess. So IF we get
the chance much later this year we'll go for it. Also easy when your club has adequate reserves.

So here's to a new beginning in 2021, even if we have to learn to walk again before we run !!

Geoff T.
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viewtopic.php?f=22&t=32187 and Another on viewtopic.php?f=22&t=28436&start=60&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

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Mountain
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Re: (Will it be a) Happy New Year?

Postby Mountain » Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:58 pm

I am concerned about the preserved railways.


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